Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-17 23.171411 27.745550 32.761765 38.642096 45.316405 52.626535 61.207557
2025-08-24 16.246180 22.199596 29.383595 38.562720 49.842843 63.113347 79.756425
2025-08-31 11.819218 18.053296 26.189906 37.312831 51.824106 69.804906 93.427912
2025-09-07 9.535790 16.011608 25.032275 38.048832 55.836451 78.756291 109.916614
2025-09-14 7.452791 13.753322 23.105382 37.307735 57.561465 84.593392 122.470988
2025-09-21 6.282522 12.599588 22.504390 38.204641 61.389996 93.220926 138.899703
2025-09-28 4.801057 10.611083 20.309759 36.433132 61.163955 96.155212 147.644644
2025-10-05 4.198122 10.013481 20.199666 37.748101 65.424093 105.443008 165.392122
2025-10-12 3.629757 9.354144 19.873327 38.635938 69.025750 113.880781 182.206463
2025-10-19 3.126867 8.711027 19.470263 39.316536 72.286464 121.897638 198.651463
2025-10-26 2.739632 8.222902 19.268268 40.281664 76.001006 130.685788 216.463583
2025-11-02 2.255474 7.398301 18.309979 39.815127 77.326563 135.868596 229.102860
2025-11-09 1.891525 6.802802 17.786347 40.204002 80.303826 144.053684 247.064946
2025-11-16 1.540852 6.140483 17.033195 40.107661 82.482309 151.147258 263.758951
2025-11-23 1.174930 5.298309 15.740106 38.817689 82.465018 154.701017 275.109381
2025-11-30 0.999208 4.960406 15.512903 39.576661 86.072588 164.196784 295.932885
2025-12-07 0.777414 4.374349 14.591848 38.812359 86.846578 169.042037 309.571465
2025-12-14 0.667813 4.140028 14.491035 39.737329 90.759960 179.219255 331.952555
2025-12-21 0.479374 3.489511 13.184881 37.910245 89.353647 180.337906 339.782924
2025-12-28 0.423381 3.378438 13.312872 39.266523 94.108544 192.129279 365.248270
2026-01-04 0.362782 3.211898 13.253372 40.182069 98.038086 202.610847 388.832294
2026-01-11 0.305993 3.028984 13.110972 40.883813 101.567929 212.496539 411.676046
2026-01-18 0.263266 2.895882 13.094754 41.878790 105.726677 223.612041 436.832857